After real estate, your vehicle is one of the most expensive purchases you’ll make. And just like your home, you want to keep your vehicle safe. With hefty price tags leading to larger car loans, along with ongoing maintenance and insurance expenses, it becomes a continuous financial commitment. Unfortunately, auto theft in Toronto has been on the rise. According to the latest data from the Toronto Police Department, 12,302 auto theft incidents were reported in 2023, a 24.9% increase from the previous year. This followed a significant 48% jump from 6,655 incidents in 2021 to 9,848 in 2022. These numbers are particularly concerning compared to 2014 and 2017, when annual car thefts consistently stayed below 4,000.
With these numbers in mind, many people who live, work, and visit Toronto are wondering: Is there a trend in neighborhoods where these thefts happen? And in a time when more people are looking for safe and affordable places to live, how will this impact Toronto’s home prices?
Zoocasa analyzed July 2024 prices from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and used the latest data from 2023 to see how home prices correlate to the increase in auto thefts in the GTA. The total mortgage and average monthly mortgage payments were calculated by assuming a minimum down payment, a 25-year amortization, and a 5-year fixed rate of 4.19%. Average home prices were sourced from the July 2024 Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
Toronto’s Top 10 Car Theft Hotspots
West Humber-Clairville was the neighborhood with the highest car thefts in Toronto in 2023, reporting 836 incidents—which averages more than two vehicles stolen daily. This figure represents a 7.5% increase compared to the previous year, with the average home price in this area at $866,765. The auto theft rate in West Humber-Clairville is notably higher than in other parts of the city, such as Milliken, which reported 303 thefts, and Etobicoke City Centre, with 295 thefts. Milliken, in particular, saw a dramatic 183.2% increase in auto thefts, while Don Valley Village experienced a 131.4% rise, and Islington recorded an 83.2% year-over-year increase. These figures underscore the heightened risk in these areas, with 70% of the ten neighborhoods with the most auto thefts reporting over 156 incidents each. Notably, nearly 40% of these high-theft neighborhoods have average home values exceeding one million dollars.
Low Prices, Low Crime, High Peace of Mind
Conversely, there are affordable neighborhoods in Toronto where auto theft rates remain low, offering residents both economic and safety advantages. In the C08 municipality, neighborhoods like Cabbagetown-South St. James Town and North St. James Town stand out, each with an average home price of $774,133 and a low incidence of auto thefts. Other nearby neighborhoods, such as East End-Danforth, reported 51 stolen vehicles, while areas like Church-Wellesley and Downtown Yonge East reported between 38 and 45 incidents. The C08 municipality remains the most affordable area among all the neighborhoods studied, balancing lower home prices with relatively low crime rates.
The Fastest Growing Car Theft Hotspots
A closer analysis of year-over-year auto theft rates reveals significant increases in specific Toronto neighborhoods. Hillcrest Village leads this unfortunate trend with a staggering 362.5% rise in auto thefts and an average home price of $1,002,101. Similarly, Ionview and Milliken experienced sharp increases in auto crime, with thefts rising by 209.1% and 183.2%, respectively. These substantial spikes in auto theft rates suggest a growing need for enhanced security measures and increased community awareness.
Pricey Addresses, Prized Targets: Auto Thefts in Wealthy Areas
Even Toronto’s most affluent neighborhoods have not been spared from the rise in auto theft incidents. The Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills area, known for its luxury estates with an average home price of $3,805,950, experienced a 35.0% increase in auto thefts, with 81 reported cases. Similarly, Bedford Park-Nortown, where homes average $2,040,126, saw a 36.1% increase in thefts, totaling 230 incidents. Lawrence Park South shares the same average home price and reported a 20.0% increase with 120 cases. These figures highlight the vulnerability of even the most upscale neighborhoods to auto theft, underscoring the importance of robust vehicle security measures regardless of property value.
Where Rates of Auto Theft Are Decreasing in Toronto
While some neighborhoods have seen a surge in auto thefts, others have made notable progress in reducing these incidents. West Queen West reported the most significant decrease, with a 36.4% drop in auto thefts. Elms-Old Rexdale also saw a considerable reduction, with a 35.0% decrease, followed by High Park-Swansea, which experienced a 27.0% decline. These decreases indicate that targeted security measures and heightened community awareness can curb auto theft, leading to safer neighborhoods.
Neighbourhoods Where Your Car Is Safest
For those concerned about the safety of their vehicles, certain central Toronto neighborhoods stand out for their low incidence of auto theft. North St. James Town, University, and Blake-Jones reported fewer than ten cars reported stolen throughout the year, making them some of the safest areas in the city for vehicle owners. These safer zones offer peace of mind to residents who value affordability and security.
However, it’s not all going downhill: 26.02% of all Toronto neighborhoods analyzed experienced a reduction in auto theft incidents compared to the previous year, reflecting the impact of ongoing crime prevention efforts.
Are you wondering about the safest neighborhoods in Toronto? An experienced real estate agent can help you find a home that fits all of your needs. Give us a call today!
